Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Margins Of Error

Rudy is on CNN with Larry saying that all the polls he's seeing have him within a margin of error of the lead.

From CNN:
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Two new polls appear to show Republican Rudy Giuliani slipping in Florida, a state he once called "crucial" to his presidential chances.

In a survey conducted for the Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times, the former New York mayor only registers 15 percent among Republican primary voters. That puts him in a tie with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has spent little time in the state and has only a fraction of the organization Giuliani has there.

John McCain and Mitt Romney are statistically tied for the top spot in the poll — McCain's at 25 percent and Romney's at 23 percent.

Giuliani also finds himself in third place spot in a new American Research Group poll with 16 percent, a statistical tie with Mike Huckabee's 17 percent. John McCain is on top with 29 percent and Mitt Romney is second with 22 percent.

That's some margin of error Rudy! Wow. Bad pollsters! Bad pollsters! Go back to poll school!

Actually, the margin of error on the Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll is 5.1 percentage points. The American Research Group's poll has a margin of error of 4.

That means Rudy isn't in a statistical dead heat for even 2nd place in either poll.

Rudy also says that sometimes he wakes up in the morning and is amazed that he's running for president. So are we Rudy. So are we.